Black Friday Deals

Have they started playing Christmas carols in your store already?

Halloween is still two full weeks away, but retailers are already starting their full-court press for your holiday shopping dollars.

The first Black Friday ad -- from hardware chain Harbor Freight Tools -- was leaked to deal sites earlier this week, officially kicking off the start of what has now become Black Friday season on the Web, a period where the nation's largest retailers leak their post-Thanksgiving shopping ads to different sites to try and entice shoppers out to their stores on the traditional holiday shopping kickoff.

Black Friday, so named for its ability to push retailers' bottom line into the black (i.e., profit) has gotten bigger each of the past post-recession years as buyers have become more deal-conscious. How big? Almost 22 million people shopped post-turkey dinner last year, up from 10.3 million in 2005, according to the National Retail Federation.

This year, however, retail analysts are expecting a tougher sell, with only 44% of consumers saying they are likely to shop on Black Friday, down from 47% last year and 52% in 2009, according to a survey by Accenture.

Fantastic deals

One-quarter of shoppers say they plan to have a "thrifty" holiday season and 18% say they will just be focused on "necessities." Only high-income shoppers are expected to loosen the purse strings this year, boosting holiday sales a projected 2.4% from last year, according to the NRF.

"'Precision shoppers' will dominate," says Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture's retail practice. "They will be very targeted about where and what they buy, and will be more inclined to shop around for the best value."

What are shoppers coveting this year? Smartphones and tablets are expected to be among the hotter items. Retailers are shipping more of these items than PCs this year, according to The Economist.

BlackFriday2011.com, an offshoot of the BradsDeals site, expects big price drops on e-readers such as the Nook and Kindle, as well as bargains on Samsung's Galaxy Tab and other Android tablets. And this year 32-inch backlit LCD HDTVs should hit a new low at $200.

Here at Smart Spending we'll help you plot your holiday shopping strategy in coming weeks, alerting you to some of the hotter deals and some of the best incentives retailers are dangling via social media, the Web, and on your mobile phone.